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susiecambria 48 seconds ago [-]
Not sure a cut of $186m between 2025 and 2034 warrants the cavalier description -- "benefits were scaled back" -- of changes to SNAP in the BBB.
In the immediate term, "Approximately 4 million people in a typical month will lose some or all of their SNAP food benefits once the changes are fully implemented, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates." according to the Center on Policy and Budget Priorities. [1] I'm not sure what is going to happen in my community (rural Virginia with a good portion of federal and federal-adjacent retirees living here full-time) as people continue to be kicked off SNAP. Food pantries are serving more people than at the beginning of 2025. I've not investigated the status of donations. But anecdotally, friends are giving fewer food items to emergency pantries.
But as is the case with other aid programs, there is a public benefit to public benefits: "Here’s the remarkable thing about SNAP: it’s one of the highest return investments the government makes. According to USDA Economic Research Service data, every $1 in SNAP benefits generates approximately $1.50 to $1.80 in economic activity. During the Great Recession, that multiplier reached $1.84." The question is, with the reduction in people served coupled with work requirements, will the follow-on economic benefits be realized between now and 2034? How will low-income households fare?
They should just lead with people don't have any money to buy things because wages aren't increasing to match living expenses.
It cuts back some of the fig leaves
darth_avocado 56 minutes ago [-]
Everything costs too much. I went to the grocery store yesterday I spent $50 to get a packet of bread, a dozen eggs, two yogurts, two yellow onions, a jalapeno, two tomatoes and a bunch of parsley. This covers breakfast for 2 days for my partner and I. In 2022, $150 would fetch the entire week’s groceries for the two of us. We are paying more, while having to change what we eat with cheaper/unhealthier options. Otherwise we would be spending almost $1500/month on just groceries for 2.
I used to eat high quality fish every week, now it’s beans and cheaper cuts of chicken. And we make good money, but our wages have gone down since 2022 when adjusted for inflation.
Brybry 29 minutes ago [-]
I feel like some of that is maybe shopping at the wrong place. Which the article I guess covers by saying people are addressing by changing retailers to save money.
Where I am in the US, you can get a dozen eggs for ~$2 at Walmart. A loaf of bread with 22 slices is like $2 to $6 depending on store brand vs name brand. The canned refried beans I buy are still $1.30 to $1.50 for 4-5 servings.
Some stuff is way too expensive (beef) but other food items seem at normal prices to me.
reliabilityguy 46 minutes ago [-]
Where are you located? I think even NYCs groceries are not that expensive.
darth_avocado 31 minutes ago [-]
SF Bay Area. I will say that these are not Costco prices or a store where I’d be couponing, but it’s not Whole Foods either. I would love to go to Costco but unfortunately I do not have the space to accommodate the bulk quantities that I’d have to buy and consume.
adelie 17 minutes ago [-]
hi! i live in SF. at trader joe's, these items would be priced at - $5 (bread loaf) + $5 (eggs) + $3 (yogurt) + $2 (onions) + $2 (tomatoes) + $1 (jalapeno) + $3 (parsley) = $21.
i'm rounding up on eggs and bread since you might be buying a more expensive variety, and guesstimating parsley because i haven't bought it from trader joe's before. everything else is pulled from my last few shopping trips.
if you're spending $50 on this, i would highly recommend finding a new grocery store.
BearOso 8 minutes ago [-]
[delayed]
inigyou 27 minutes ago [-]
By living expenses, you mean rent. You should just say rent. It cuts back on another fig leaf.
Rent is the only part of our economy in which money is forcibly taken at gunpoint by someone who never did any work to earn it.
The groceries at the grocery store are expensive because of the grocery store's rent, too.
cm2012 59 minutes ago [-]
This is much more likely due to competition from food delivery services. Spend on which has shot up dramatically because at least in the United States average incomes have actually risen substantially since 2015.
1 hours ago [-]
dyauspitr 1 hours ago [-]
Meat is like $30/lb. What a joke, I see almost no one at the butcher counter in grocery stores anymore.
gruez 20 minutes ago [-]
>Meat is like $30/lb.
???
Maybe if you're buying organic grass fed steaks every day, but chicken/pork is still available for less than $5, especially on sale. Kroger's weekly ad for Dallas, TX shows:
1. beef for $6.97/lb
2. pork for $1.99/lb
3. chicken breasts for $3.99/lb, or organic for $6.99/lb
Yeah my local Safeway has been having whole chickens, leg quarters, thighs or drumsticks for 0.99 per pound. Still that price as of today.
wahern 59 minutes ago [-]
AFAIU, when beef prices started to spike a year or two ago, ranchers decided to cash in and slaughter much of their herd, including breeding stock. This was on top of a decades-long decline in herd size, and a recent drought that has driven up costs of maintaining a herd--another reason why they decided to cull and cash-in.
The current situation will be the new normal for at least the next several years. Chicken hasn't risen nearly as much, just moderately more than inflation, perhaps because of a shift of demand away from beef.
There also seems to be greater price discrimination going on with beef than previously, with larger spreads between, e.g., bulk ground vs vacuum packed ground vs whole cuts.
fluidcruft 29 minutes ago [-]
There's also a screwworm outbreak going on.
saltcured 1 hours ago [-]
One of the most common interactions I witness at our local supermarket butcher counter is the guy explaining to yet another customer that the advertised weekly special sold out before lunch a couple days prior.
irishcoffee 34 minutes ago [-]
We buy a side of beef at a time from a farm down the street for $6/lb, up from $4 a few years ago. Can’t buy beef any other way.
indoorfish 28 minutes ago [-]
$7.35/lb where I am with a $600 deposit. It ends up being about $2k all things considered. It may even out, but a lot of folks don't have that kind of money around, ~5% of a yearly salary isn't nothing for a lot of people.
I completely forgot about needing a chest freezer and space for a chest freezer..that's also not nothing.
dyauspitr 20 minutes ago [-]
That’s before or after trimming? Because you could do crazy arbitrage at those prices. I get trimmed beef for $14/lb at the farm down the street.
irishcoffee 13 minutes ago [-]
I believe that’s hanging weight, so after the butcher it’s probably closer to $9, but still a bargain and a half compared to what I see at wal mart, which is the only place we buy groceries because of cost.
billfor 1 hours ago [-]
They should just lead with saying that obesity rates have tripled since the 1960s and maybe they will start declining a bit now.
estearum 1 hours ago [-]
Very well-supported argument by the fact that obesity tends to accumulate in the well-off who can afford lots of food, while poor folks tend to be slender. So yeah, clearly lower spending on food would reduce obesity.
i think they were being sarcastic with a very valid point ;)
xnx 32 minutes ago [-]
Cheap GLP-1's will probably finally bend this curve for lower incomes. Muscle-mass (via paid meds) will be the new marker of wealth/status for upper incomes.
1 hours ago [-]
quantified 2 hours ago [-]
Probably cuts back on some of the epic waste on the consumer side. Hope that ripples to cutting down waste throughout the system. Paying for stuff that isn't consumed is by definition waste.
> food waste is estimated at ... 133 billion pounds ... in 2010.
USA population in 2010 was 311M. 133B / 311M = 427 pounds per person.
I sincerely doubt the average consumer throws away 427 pounds of fresh food in a year.
jandrewrogers 1 hours ago [-]
That "waste" is almost certainly excess production that can't find a market + spoilage. It is entirely normal for farmers to literally dump their crops in these cases. Everyone in the supply chain does it to some extent.
Lack of market and spoilage makes it unavoidable. When I lived in farming communities there were massive piles where people dumped excess crops.
hadlock 1 hours ago [-]
When I got married our food waste probably tripled. My food waste as a single guy was significantly less than married. When I had kids it probably tripled again. Much like a horse to water, you cannot explain to a 3 year old that if they don't eat all the banannas before tomorrow, they will go bad. We probably throw out 1-2 lbs of fruit a week, which is ~100 lbs a year right there.
The kid might have ate 2 lbs of blueberries a week for six months, but surprise, they hate them now!
I can't count the number of half-full glasses of milk I've found in the last month, probably averaging 1 per day. Kids are extremely inefficient eaters unless it is covered in sugar or chocolate.
mrob 1 hours ago [-]
>they don't eat all the banannas before tomorrow, they will go bad
The missing datapoint is that households are having to work more labor-hours per banana every year for decades, so the energy necessary to cook banana bread is in direct competition with the energy necessary to purchase bananas. Atomic Era assumptions that a household has the time, energy, capability, appliances, and electricity budget to cook banana bread no longer reliably hold in the U.S. and cannot be taken for granted as accessible to all families. (If this seems like a negative feedback loop, it is; see also food deserts, substitution of Added Sugars for more expensive-but-nutritional calories in the diets of our majority-obese population, and so on.)
9x39 31 minutes ago [-]
If the point is that cost/calorie has risen too much, it's substantially worse in the cost/calorie sense to eat prepared food out of the home versus cook at home.
As an aside, a quickbread like banana bread happens to be one of the simplest to make with some of the cheapest shelf-stable ingredients, and almost every home has an oven and access to the ingredients. For those who like it, I highly recommend this recipe (Mark Bittmans):
===
8 tablespoons (1 stick) butter, plus some for greasing the pan
1 ½ cups all-purpose flour
½ cup whole wheat flour
1 teaspoon salt
1 ½ teaspoons baking powder
¾ cup sugar
2 eggs
3 very ripe bananas, mashed with a fork until smooth
1 teaspoon vanilla extract
½ cup chopped walnuts or pecans
½ cup grated dried unsweetened coconut
===
Step 1
Heat the oven to 350 degrees. Grease a 9- by 5-inch loaf pan.
Step 2
Mix together the dry ingredients. With a hand mixer, a whisk, or in the food processor, cream the butter and beat in the eggs and bananas. Stir this mixture into the dry ingredients; stir just enough to combine (it’s okay if there are lumps). Gently stir in the vanilla, nuts, and coconut.
Step 3
Pour the batter into the loaf pan and bake for 45 to 60 minutes, until nicely browned. A toothpick inserted into the center of the bread will come out fairly clean when it is done, but because of the bananas this bread will remain moister than most. Do not overcook. Cool on a rack for 15 minutes before removing from the pan.
altairprime 25 minutes ago [-]
Worse in the raw cash outlay per food calorie, maybe, but you also have to adjust for food deserts — ancillary costs to acquire groceries @ IRS rate of $0.725/mile, nearest grocery store is 1.5 miles away, which doesn't sound like a lot but it sure does add up! — energy budget decisions for 15 minutes of food preparation vs. 15 minutes of extra study/rest/sleep, heat output of one hour of oven vs. lack of air conditioning at home during extended multi-week summer heat waves, and so on.
I'm one of those on a much-reduced budget without access to a home oven (kitchenettes and single-top induction burners are wonderful things), without central AC at home (I do miss it but AI replaced my former industry), and live in a food tundra (slightly higher food density than a desert but more from luck than urban planning), so if it's all the same to you, I'm just going to ignore the recipe and move on.
entropyie 59 minutes ago [-]
I have two kids and this is pure bollox. They'll eat what they are given if they are hungry enough. Or eat the leftovers yourself. Cook the fruit and make compote. We never throw out edible food, virtually zero waste. Just make an effort.
hattmall 26 minutes ago [-]
You are the outlier then, the situation described was spot on for all the parents I know.
irishcoffee 28 minutes ago [-]
Same here, 3 kids, we don’t waste food. As an aside, we’re all slender. We just figured out how much of what to buy each week, plan our meals, etc. I also personally like eating leftovers for both breakfast and a packed lunch, which probably helps a bit.
doodlebugging 15 minutes ago [-]
I'm a person who will definitely not eat a banana that is past its prime. I completely understand the option to just throw it out since bananas are inexpensive and widely available.
I have a solution that we have instituted here at home if you would like to cut waste on bananas and other perishable fruits and vegetables. We bought a food dehydrator. I was initially skeptical about the utility of the device but after several years of ownership I find it is one of the most useful tools for anyone who cooks at home.
Bananas, even those that are well past the point where I won't eat them, are ridiculously delicious when sliced and dried. The flavor concentrates so that a single banana chip can be like the old Lays Potato Chip slogan - no one can eat just one.
This also works great for berries like blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, goji berries, kiwi fruit, apples, plums, peaches, nectarines, cherries, etc.
We buy them fresh or grow them here and before they reach the toss stage, we dry them for future use. Some of the things are also great frozen. I have several pounds of berries from this year's crop in the freezer now and quite a few available for adding to granolas that we make here at home.
We have made fruit leathers in the past using strawberries and the flavor is better than the store-bought products.
I grow and dry vegetables too. Some of them are also freezer items.
Good luck with the grocery bill.
aziaziazi 59 minutes ago [-]
Ripes bananas makes the best cakes or pancakes ! I got your point though.
apercu 1 hours ago [-]
Buy frozen fruit?
qdotme 1 hours ago [-]
1.5lb / day? I'd wager it's quite equally in thirds, would love to see the data.
I'd believe 0.5lbs/day/person in my household - cook enough for everyone to have seconds, but most of the time it's tossed (sometimes after some time spent in the fridge/freezer hoping for a reheat); stuff bought but inedible (chicken bones, etc)..
I'd believe similar in the distribution pipeline (just look at how much stuff are in the discounted aisle just about to fall off sell-by date + obviously moldy goods), and I'd believe similar in the production pipeline.
reactordev 1 hours ago [-]
No food gets thrown out in my house. We have trash from plastic and paper but food is consumed, by somebody. If it hits the expiration date then it’s today’s quick meal or dog food. I try not to throw away anything that is edible.
qdotme 1 hours ago [-]
Probably was that way before we got married and had a kid. And before our dog started getting older and we needed to watch what she eats.
Now the notion of "cook fresh every day" is a thing (rather than reheats), we try to do keep leftovers but eventually we run out of space for them.
reactordev 45 minutes ago [-]
absolutely. Cooking smaller meals for the family to ensure it's all eaten or having no-cook alternatives for afterwards (hello graham crackers!) if you're still hungry. Normally I try my best to portion for who's going to eat. If I'm cooking for myself, its usually a one-pan meal.
apercu 1 hours ago [-]
Or composted to feed my garden. I hardly throw out any garbage.
1 hours ago [-]
Wonnk13 56 minutes ago [-]
I'm not surprised. K shaped economy, any sector that isn't high tech / AI is stagnant. It's rough out there. I've been saying since Covid, retailers have figured out some consumers aren't as price sensitive as previously thought. WholeFoods doesn't need to cut prices, but the lower tier grocery stores will really feel the cutbacks.
reliabilityguy 48 minutes ago [-]
In NYC Amazon fresh is cheaper than most of the grocery stores, except maybe some things like frozen food in Trader Joe.
We simply stopped buying food in the grocery store across the street: Amazon fresh on many positions can be like 50% cheaper.
claaams 40 minutes ago [-]
Mr Bezos thanks you for your support and sends his regards.
realityfactchex 45 minutes ago [-]
Theoretically I'm kinda rich, but I feel the crunch at the grocery store.
I buy the highest quality, lowest cost stuff I can find.
There can be a positive story here maybe though:
- More doordash = less grocery
- More farmer's market = less grocery
- More home-grown = less grocery
Though TFA points out,
80% of Americans say they're still trying to spend less
28% are actively trying to cut back on groceries
56% are trading down to lower-priced brands
49% are simply buying fewer items,
44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions
BTW my nearest grocery shut down this quarter. Couldn't make money. Got to go farther now.
xnx 28 minutes ago [-]
Consumers have been optimizing for convenience over being value shoppers.
Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.
swed420 26 minutes ago [-]
> Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.
Many prices at those places have doubled in the last ten years or less.
JoeAltmaier 1 hours ago [-]
Shelves are fairly spotty in my town. Never saw that before, not in 50 years.
djoldman 38 minutes ago [-]
The variation in prices of staple foods between different stores has exploded in Chicago. For what it's worth, Aldi is significantly cheaper for many items. It's gotten a lot busier there too.
the__alchemist 1 hours ago [-]
Is delivery services accounted for? I buy 1/3 I did a year ago, as Amazon's services are so convenient, and not much more expensive. (Especially since I throw out less now)
dqv 39 minutes ago [-]
No way to know what data sources NielsenIQ is using, but for what it lacks in data from retailers, it probably makes up for by way of consumers' receipts.
entrepy123 22 minutes ago [-]
The 18-month data charts in TFA don't give much information for comparing "this" with the past. I wish it went back 30 or 50 years. I like that the default view is units sold, looks like 2026 is a worse year for grocery stores compared with last year. Sales dollars is still growing, though slower that it grew in the past, and apparently only by jacking up prices.
In short: Don't worry, this one is just a 1974 or 2008 or 1992 or 1981 style blip. Hopefully. It always recovered before. (Before 1947, data is sketchy/excluded though.)
People did wait in soup and bread lines in the 1930s, I think. Check the online libraries, you'll find entire books from the early 1900s on how to make economical tasty meals on a shoestring budget.
We can do better. But it's not going to be by relying on large corps to help us out, probably.
It's going to be by reinventing the systems that are utterly broken.
[0] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption (chain-type quantity index). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA
kart23 1 hours ago [-]
cooking one or two portions at home using quality ingredients from stores in SF is literally as pricey as eating out nowadays.
doesn't surprise me that people are trying to get their dollars to stretch further by buying in bulk, planning ahead more consciously, etc.
reactordev 1 hours ago [-]
Every corner of your life where you think you are safe, stable, and able to save will be found and min/maxed for ultimate profits.
silisili 31 minutes ago [-]
Honestly, it's always been that way for a lot of things. Ten years ago I remember trying to make the ultimate home pizza, spent over $30 in ingredients and realized it's cheaper to buy out. Same with hamburgers - unless you can use all of the ingredients to make 5 or 6.
Restaurants have always been rather low margin, and they're buying ingredients a heckofa lot cheaper than a single shopper can.
anukin 1 hours ago [-]
People underestimate the impact of glp1 drugs on this. They should also correlate with decline in fast food consumption.
How much does 7% of the population spending 4% less on groceries impact the numbers in the original article?
hombre_fatal 1 hours ago [-]
I doubt it. I'd wager the opposite: we like to overestimate the most interesting explanations vs. the boring ones.
My sedentary, calorie dense, UberEats-at-2am 5000 calorie lifestyle isn't why I'm fat -- it's the "seed oils".
mhitza 1 hours ago [-]
I think that is also big factor why many, very many, products contain now protein, and the exessive protein food receipes on social media.
dyauspitr 1 hours ago [-]
I don’t think a large percentage of the American population is paying $500/month for glp1.
mythrwy 19 minutes ago [-]
I'm just one small data point, and significantly in the minority I'm sure, but I got chickens and started gardening hard 4 or 5 years ago and get around 1/3 of my food from there.
gustavus 1 hours ago [-]
> Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year,
Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.
Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.
fluidcruft 50 minutes ago [-]
Yeah it's real rocket science at work here. Grocery bill keeps going up and less and lower quality food comes home. It's a real mystery.
thelastgallon 33 minutes ago [-]
It’s the trickle down theory of food, the super rich must eat first. Eventually, it will trickle down to the poor. Trust economists on this one.
alephnerd 2 hours ago [-]
What is interesting is the subnational breakdown - volumes have been decreasing in the US West for over a year compared to the rest of the US, and overall sales have also decreased as well whereas they are stagnant in the rest of the US.
tencentshill 1 hours ago [-]
Trump put a little orange thumb on the scale by choosing Walmart to be the winner on beef prices. Did they weigh for government interference?
>The Walmart price reductions "looks less like a turning point on food inflation and more like an aggressive summer promotion," David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University
Also the your claim that "Trump put a little orange thumb on the scale by choosing Walmart to be the winner on beef prices" doesn't make any sense. This isn't the soviet union. The government doesn't control enough production to be able to offer walmart sweetheart deals. The best they can do is browbeat walmart into lowering prices, but that's not the same as "choosing Walmart to be the winner".
jmyeet 49 minutes ago [-]
Journalist Alfred Henry Lewis said over a century ago that civilization is only 9 meals away from anarchy. I fear in the coming years we are going to be testing that theory.
Another quote that springs to mind is "Corporations behave like they're annoyed that they have to go through you to get to your money". The pandemic was a catalyst for a change in attitude by American corporations who were afraid to raise prices. That fear is now gone. Every aspect of corporations now are dedicated to raising prices and the easiest thing to raise prices on is things with inelastic demand. Food, housing, electricity. It's the entire basis of private equity, which seeks "pricing power". That's just another way of saying "inelastic demand".
All of this has been exacerbated by a pointless, unwinnable foreign war in Iran at the behest of a foreign state (ie Israel). The only thing thus far that has prevented a global economic collapse is China [1] but that is about to bite because the US SPR is about to hit the effective minimum [2]. And now the issue isn't going to be crude oil but shortages of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel. You can see this by looking at the 3-2-1 Crack Spread [3], which itself is also going to get worse because of the destruction of an estimated 40% of Russia's refining capacity, which has already resulted in halting diesel exports.
Diesel prices are a huge factor in inflation [4]. Another lagging issue here is that much of the crops planted in the northern hemisphere this year received less or no fertilizer because of the Iran war. That's likely to cause a famine impacting tens of millions of people and will further drive up food prices.
Rents keep going up. Food prices keep going up. Inflation keeps going up. The one thing that doesn't keep going up are wages. And people are rapidly running out of money to absorb it. And the American government that is inflicting this on not only the US but really the world, does not care.
Imagine how expensive it’s going to be for the world to help Russia if it collapses.
eth0up 43 minutes ago [-]
Is the whole Straight of Hormuz fertilizer shortage just FUD, or should we be preparing to see this "real"ness get a lot more real in the coming months or season?
I think it's a legitimate concern, and just one of many problems. Couple that with inflation (yes, and rising costs self compounding), petrol problems, pressure on the dollar, income stagnation, loads of other fun things and the wondrous introduction of LLM magic into every orifice of society, where should we expect this all leads to?
I am always looking for reasons to let my inner optimist shine through. Help, anyone?
Edit: I expect I will be chastened by vegans for the following, but..
I no longer buy milk. Organic milk up from an astonishing ~$5 to an average of $7.50 per gallon now.
I do not buy much meat, but beef is no longer an option. Yeah, it was subsidized, but that doesn't mean it's getting more affordable.
But really, I can no longer afford fresh vegetables. And though I lean vegetarian, that is quickly becoming an unhealthy option.
jawns 2 hours ago [-]
[dead]
jackyinger 2 hours ago [-]
Woah… price elasticity of demand is real… who knew? /s
NuclearPM 2 hours ago [-]
Lame
mmh0000 2 hours ago [-]
Oh Man. The author couldn't even write their own headline. Thanks LLM!
stavros 2 hours ago [-]
Haven't you heard? Everything is real these days. Now I have the full picture, and it's load-bearing. Here's the smoking gun, a belt-and-suspenders approach to article-writing. It's not writing, it's poetry.
eth0up 1 hours ago [-]
You are right on one thing.*1
But I need to push back on something.*2
The claim that everything is real is too broad and I'd urge caution in making such a blanket assumption. It would be epistemically reckless of me to agree here. It is also possible that the pattern you are seeing is simply a result of users absorbing the vernacular of LLMs. And calling it poetry is not supported by the actual content and I don't think that framing is accurate.*3
1. How every reply begins now.
2. How every assertion is handled now, even if agreed
3. Feigned obtuseness, or missing the point
How'd I do?
stavros 1 hours ago [-]
Pretty good, but it's missing the punchiness of "we wrote ten articles, and here's what we've learned: every tip, every misstep, every verbal tic".
I hate how it's everywhere now. Even my coworkers speak like this.
eth0up 57 minutes ago [-]
The critique of my performance you are making is not an insult, not necessarily disagreement -really big juicy emdash- but a somber reference to the common punctuation style that many are understandably becoming frustrated with.
Edit: There are three ways to address this......
bloaf 1 hours ago [-]
Obesity rates have been declining over the same time period.
Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing?
We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).
kennethologist 1 hours ago [-]
"Early studies suggest that GLP-1s may be effective in treating opioid, alcohol and nicotine addiction. Researchers are examining whether the drugs can also help people who are addicted to gambling, sex and shopping, among other things."
Yeah - powerful confounder to all the analyses of customer behavior. Even the article itself calls it out - there probably is a good way to segment it, as GLP1 availability is not uniform, some states regulate it more tightly etc.
fullshark 1 hours ago [-]
The analysis mentions this, says it's a factor and links to:
It certainly does, I mentioned it in an comment below, good callout.
I am however also more interested in how this affects other types of consumer behavior - and whether that is a factor in pullback on the economy (on top of other factors - energy, job market, trade restrictions).
anukin 1 hours ago [-]
I am inclined towards thinking that it is probably this as there is also decline in fast food demand.
paleotrope 1 hours ago [-]
12% of the adult population. I think it's a good theory.
mh- 1 hours ago [-]
> In the US today, about 15% of adults have tried GLP-1s, with 7% currently taking them, according to research based on Bain’s proprietary GLP-1 adoption model.
In the immediate term, "Approximately 4 million people in a typical month will lose some or all of their SNAP food benefits once the changes are fully implemented, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates." according to the Center on Policy and Budget Priorities. [1] I'm not sure what is going to happen in my community (rural Virginia with a good portion of federal and federal-adjacent retirees living here full-time) as people continue to be kicked off SNAP. Food pantries are serving more people than at the beginning of 2025. I've not investigated the status of donations. But anecdotally, friends are giving fewer food items to emergency pantries.
But as is the case with other aid programs, there is a public benefit to public benefits: "Here’s the remarkable thing about SNAP: it’s one of the highest return investments the government makes. According to USDA Economic Research Service data, every $1 in SNAP benefits generates approximately $1.50 to $1.80 in economic activity. During the Great Recession, that multiplier reached $1.84." The question is, with the reduction in people served coupled with work requirements, will the follow-on economic benefits be realized between now and 2034? How will low-income households fare?
[1] https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/many-low-incom... [2] https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden-economic-engin...
It cuts back some of the fig leaves
I used to eat high quality fish every week, now it’s beans and cheaper cuts of chicken. And we make good money, but our wages have gone down since 2022 when adjusted for inflation.
Where I am in the US, you can get a dozen eggs for ~$2 at Walmart. A loaf of bread with 22 slices is like $2 to $6 depending on store brand vs name brand. The canned refried beans I buy are still $1.30 to $1.50 for 4-5 servings.
Some stuff is way too expensive (beef) but other food items seem at normal prices to me.
i'm rounding up on eggs and bread since you might be buying a more expensive variety, and guesstimating parsley because i haven't bought it from trader joe's before. everything else is pulled from my last few shopping trips.
if you're spending $50 on this, i would highly recommend finding a new grocery store.
Rent is the only part of our economy in which money is forcibly taken at gunpoint by someone who never did any work to earn it.
The groceries at the grocery store are expensive because of the grocery store's rent, too.
???
Maybe if you're buying organic grass fed steaks every day, but chicken/pork is still available for less than $5, especially on sale. Kroger's weekly ad for Dallas, TX shows:
1. beef for $6.97/lb
2. pork for $1.99/lb
3. chicken breasts for $3.99/lb, or organic for $6.99/lb
https://www.kroger.com/weeklyad
The current situation will be the new normal for at least the next several years. Chicken hasn't risen nearly as much, just moderately more than inflation, perhaps because of a shift of demand away from beef.
There also seems to be greater price discrimination going on with beef than previously, with larger spreads between, e.g., bulk ground vs vacuum packed ground vs whole cuts.
I completely forgot about needing a chest freezer and space for a chest freezer..that's also not nothing.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/237141/us-obesity-by-ann...
https://www.usda.gov/about-food/food-safety/food-loss-and-wa...
> food waste is estimated at ... 133 billion pounds ... in 2010.
USA population in 2010 was 311M. 133B / 311M = 427 pounds per person.
I sincerely doubt the average consumer throws away 427 pounds of fresh food in a year.
Lack of market and spoilage makes it unavoidable. When I lived in farming communities there were massive piles where people dumped excess crops.
The kid might have ate 2 lbs of blueberries a week for six months, but surprise, they hate them now!
I can't count the number of half-full glasses of milk I've found in the last month, probably averaging 1 per day. Kids are extremely inefficient eaters unless it is covered in sugar or chocolate.
This one specifically has a good solution:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_bread
As an aside, a quickbread like banana bread happens to be one of the simplest to make with some of the cheapest shelf-stable ingredients, and almost every home has an oven and access to the ingredients. For those who like it, I highly recommend this recipe (Mark Bittmans):
===
8 tablespoons (1 stick) butter, plus some for greasing the pan
1 ½ cups all-purpose flour
½ cup whole wheat flour
1 teaspoon salt
1 ½ teaspoons baking powder
¾ cup sugar
2 eggs
3 very ripe bananas, mashed with a fork until smooth
1 teaspoon vanilla extract
½ cup chopped walnuts or pecans
½ cup grated dried unsweetened coconut
===
Step 1
Heat the oven to 350 degrees. Grease a 9- by 5-inch loaf pan.
Step 2
Mix together the dry ingredients. With a hand mixer, a whisk, or in the food processor, cream the butter and beat in the eggs and bananas. Stir this mixture into the dry ingredients; stir just enough to combine (it’s okay if there are lumps). Gently stir in the vanilla, nuts, and coconut.
Step 3
Pour the batter into the loaf pan and bake for 45 to 60 minutes, until nicely browned. A toothpick inserted into the center of the bread will come out fairly clean when it is done, but because of the bananas this bread will remain moister than most. Do not overcook. Cool on a rack for 15 minutes before removing from the pan.
I'm one of those on a much-reduced budget without access to a home oven (kitchenettes and single-top induction burners are wonderful things), without central AC at home (I do miss it but AI replaced my former industry), and live in a food tundra (slightly higher food density than a desert but more from luck than urban planning), so if it's all the same to you, I'm just going to ignore the recipe and move on.
I have a solution that we have instituted here at home if you would like to cut waste on bananas and other perishable fruits and vegetables. We bought a food dehydrator. I was initially skeptical about the utility of the device but after several years of ownership I find it is one of the most useful tools for anyone who cooks at home.
Bananas, even those that are well past the point where I won't eat them, are ridiculously delicious when sliced and dried. The flavor concentrates so that a single banana chip can be like the old Lays Potato Chip slogan - no one can eat just one.
This also works great for berries like blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, goji berries, kiwi fruit, apples, plums, peaches, nectarines, cherries, etc.
We buy them fresh or grow them here and before they reach the toss stage, we dry them for future use. Some of the things are also great frozen. I have several pounds of berries from this year's crop in the freezer now and quite a few available for adding to granolas that we make here at home.
We have made fruit leathers in the past using strawberries and the flavor is better than the store-bought products.
I grow and dry vegetables too. Some of them are also freezer items.
Good luck with the grocery bill.
I'd believe 0.5lbs/day/person in my household - cook enough for everyone to have seconds, but most of the time it's tossed (sometimes after some time spent in the fridge/freezer hoping for a reheat); stuff bought but inedible (chicken bones, etc)..
I'd believe similar in the distribution pipeline (just look at how much stuff are in the discounted aisle just about to fall off sell-by date + obviously moldy goods), and I'd believe similar in the production pipeline.
Now the notion of "cook fresh every day" is a thing (rather than reheats), we try to do keep leftovers but eventually we run out of space for them.
We simply stopped buying food in the grocery store across the street: Amazon fresh on many positions can be like 50% cheaper.
I buy the highest quality, lowest cost stuff I can find.
There can be a positive story here maybe though:
- More doordash = less grocery
- More farmer's market = less grocery
- More home-grown = less grocery
Though TFA points out,
BTW my nearest grocery shut down this quarter. Couldn't make money. Got to go farther now.Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.
Many prices at those places have doubled in the last ten years or less.
So here's page with a line chart and downloadable CSV data, with a ~79 year lookback best as could quickly be found [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA
In short: Don't worry, this one is just a 1974 or 2008 or 1992 or 1981 style blip. Hopefully. It always recovered before. (Before 1947, data is sketchy/excluded though.)
People did wait in soup and bread lines in the 1930s, I think. Check the online libraries, you'll find entire books from the early 1900s on how to make economical tasty meals on a shoestring budget.
We can do better. But it's not going to be by relying on large corps to help us out, probably.
It's going to be by reinventing the systems that are utterly broken.
[0] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption (chain-type quantity index). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA
doesn't surprise me that people are trying to get their dollars to stretch further by buying in bulk, planning ahead more consciously, etc.
Restaurants have always been rather low margin, and they're buying ingredients a heckofa lot cheaper than a single shopper can.
How much does 7% of the population spending 4% less on groceries impact the numbers in the original article?
My sedentary, calorie dense, UberEats-at-2am 5000 calorie lifestyle isn't why I'm fat -- it's the "seed oils".
Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.
Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/grocery/2026/07/08/walmart-ro...
>The Walmart price reductions "looks less like a turning point on food inflation and more like an aggressive summer promotion," David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University
Also the your claim that "Trump put a little orange thumb on the scale by choosing Walmart to be the winner on beef prices" doesn't make any sense. This isn't the soviet union. The government doesn't control enough production to be able to offer walmart sweetheart deals. The best they can do is browbeat walmart into lowering prices, but that's not the same as "choosing Walmart to be the winner".
Another quote that springs to mind is "Corporations behave like they're annoyed that they have to go through you to get to your money". The pandemic was a catalyst for a change in attitude by American corporations who were afraid to raise prices. That fear is now gone. Every aspect of corporations now are dedicated to raising prices and the easiest thing to raise prices on is things with inelastic demand. Food, housing, electricity. It's the entire basis of private equity, which seeks "pricing power". That's just another way of saying "inelastic demand".
All of this has been exacerbated by a pointless, unwinnable foreign war in Iran at the behest of a foreign state (ie Israel). The only thing thus far that has prevented a global economic collapse is China [1] but that is about to bite because the US SPR is about to hit the effective minimum [2]. And now the issue isn't going to be crude oil but shortages of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel. You can see this by looking at the 3-2-1 Crack Spread [3], which itself is also going to get worse because of the destruction of an estimated 40% of Russia's refining capacity, which has already resulted in halting diesel exports.
Diesel prices are a huge factor in inflation [4]. Another lagging issue here is that much of the crops planted in the northern hemisphere this year received less or no fertilizer because of the Iran war. That's likely to cause a famine impacting tens of millions of people and will further drive up food prices.
Rents keep going up. Food prices keep going up. Inflation keeps going up. The one thing that doesn't keep going up are wages. And people are rapidly running out of money to absorb it. And the American government that is inflicting this on not only the US but really the world, does not care.
[1]: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-oil-imports-i...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strate...
[3]: https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread
[4]: https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-diesel-trucking-...
I think it's a legitimate concern, and just one of many problems. Couple that with inflation (yes, and rising costs self compounding), petrol problems, pressure on the dollar, income stagnation, loads of other fun things and the wondrous introduction of LLM magic into every orifice of society, where should we expect this all leads to?
I am always looking for reasons to let my inner optimist shine through. Help, anyone?
Edit: I expect I will be chastened by vegans for the following, but..
I no longer buy milk. Organic milk up from an astonishing ~$5 to an average of $7.50 per gallon now.
I do not buy much meat, but beef is no longer an option. Yeah, it was subsidized, but that doesn't mean it's getting more affordable.
But really, I can no longer afford fresh vegetables. And though I lean vegetarian, that is quickly becoming an unhealthy option.
But I need to push back on something.*2
The claim that everything is real is too broad and I'd urge caution in making such a blanket assumption. It would be epistemically reckless of me to agree here. It is also possible that the pattern you are seeing is simply a result of users absorbing the vernacular of LLMs. And calling it poetry is not supported by the actual content and I don't think that framing is accurate.*3
1. How every reply begins now.
2. How every assertion is handled now, even if agreed
3. Feigned obtuseness, or missing the point
How'd I do?
I hate how it's everywhere now. Even my coworkers speak like this.
Edit: There are three ways to address this......
[1] https://foodlore.blog/glp1-ozempic-effect-food-industry/
We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).
https://med.stanford.edu/news/insights/2025/04/ozempic-addic...
https://www.bain.com/insights/weight-loss-drug-users-spend-l...
I am however also more interested in how this affects other types of consumer behavior - and whether that is a factor in pullback on the economy (on top of other factors - energy, job market, trade restrictions).
Is the 12% from another source?